Coffee Prices Are Surging—Here’s Why Your Morning Cup May Get Even More Expensive
By CreditVana
Bad news for coffee lovers: According to the latest inflation data, the average retail price of roasted coffee has climbed 14.8% since last July.
Worse still, a new wave of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump’s trade policies kicked in this month, creating chaos in the coffee supply chain. These tariffs could push coffee prices even higher in the coming months.
Why Prices Are Rising
Most high-quality coffee beans come from a select few countries — nearly all of which are now hit with tariffs. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for 37% of global output, is now subject to a 50% tariff that took effect on August 6.
Brazil’s arabica beans, a staple in specialty blends, are especially affected. Roasters and importers are grappling with how to respond to the sudden price spike.
“There’s not an appetite to purchase large volumes of Brazilian coffee with a 50% tariff,” says Peter Radosevich, international sales team leader at Royal Coffee, a specialty importer based in Oakland, California.
With Brazil’s competitive pricing gone, many roasters are turning away from Brazilian beans altogether. But finding alternatives in a tight global market is no easy task.
“Roasters in the U.S. are scrambling,” says Spencer Turer, vice president at Coffee Enterprises, a Vermont-based coffee consulting and testing company. “They’ll either eat the added cost or pass it on to the consumer.”
No Easy Substitutes
New tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% now cover nearly all major coffee-producing nations. The only major exemption is Mexico, which remains protected under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, even Mexican coffee prices are climbing due to increased demand.
“Hundreds of roasters likely had the same idea and already started calling importers,” says Turer.
The Bigger Picture: Why the Tariffs?
The logic behind tariffs is typically to protect domestic industries. But coffee isn’t grown on a large scale in the continental U.S. — only Hawaii and Puerto Rico have notable production, and small efforts are emerging in California.
In other words, coffee is collateral damage in a broader trade dispute.
Back in July, bipartisan members of Congress, including the co-chairs of the Congressional Coffee Caucus (yes, that exists), petitioned the administration to exempt green (unroasted) coffee from the tariffs.
“Coffee isn’t produced in the U.S. at a scale that meets domestic demand,” wrote Reps. Jill Tokuda (D-HI) and William Timmons (R-SC).
“Each $1 of imported coffee generates about $43 in economic value across the supply chain.”
Despite the push, no exemption was granted — leaving the coffee industry in limbo. And as new tariff updates are announced almost daily, roasters don’t have the luxury of waiting.
Coffee’s Long Journey to Your Cup
Coffee’s path from farm to mug is long and complex. It starts with producers, ranging from large plantations to small cooperatives, who harvest and process green coffee beans. These beans are then sold to importers — over 7,000 of which operate in the U.S.
Prices are influenced by the futures market, which reacts to factors like weather conditions, oil prices, interest rates, and currency fluctuations. Back-to-back droughts in Brazil have already contributed to price instability in recent years.
“Coffee is among the most volatile commodities globally,” says Turer. “Prices move aggressively — daily, weekly, monthly — sometimes without obvious logic.”
Specialty-grade beans, often grown at high altitudes in countries like Colombia and Ethiopia, fetch premiums. Importers build strong relationships with producers to maintain quality and consistency.
“We want to honor all our existing contracts,” says Radosevich. “But it’s hard to commit to new purchases when we don’t know what tariffs will look like.”
Shipping Woes Add to the Mess
Coffee typically arrives in 60-kilogram sacks, but global shipping disruptions are further complicating deliveries.
“All freight carriers are shifting routes constantly,” says David Yake, director of sales at Tony’s Coffee, a Bellingham, Washington-based roaster. “It’s not as bad as COVID, but unpredictability is rising again.”
Roasters large and small — from giants like Starbucks to tiny independents — face mounting challenges. Even those with pre-tariff contracts are being charged the new duties.
“Tariffs are being paid by U.S. small businesses,” says Yake. “Not the producing countries. We see the charges on our invoices.”
Tony’s Coffee isn’t heavily dependent on Brazil but is still absorbing a 10% baseline tariff and ongoing price increases due to climate-related crop issues.
“Drought and climate change were already squeezing supply before tariffs,” says Yake. “Our grocery sales have declined. Brand loyalty only goes so far when prices jump.”
The Struggle for Small Roasters
Chuck Nigash, owner of Elevated Roast in Bainbridge Island, Washington, is doing his best to keep prices steady.
“My tariff costs are about 21%,” he says. “I’m eating half of that to avoid passing it all onto customers.”
That’s possible for smaller operations with low overhead — but not all roasters are so flexible.
“This disruption — political, economic, logistical — creates real stress,” says Turer. “Some businesses won’t survive. Interest rates are up, credit’s tight, and margins are thinning fast.”
Where Will Brazil’s Coffee Go?
If U.S. buyers step back from Brazilian beans, others will step in.
While the U.S. is the world’s largest coffee consumer, the European Union as a whole drinks even more — and already buys one-third of its beans from Brazil.
Then there’s China, which recently approved 183 Brazilian coffee exporters — a move widely seen as a political gesture to build ties with Brazil amid U.S.-China tensions.
“In the coffee world,” says Turer, “all coffee finds a home.”
What About Coffee Drinkers?
According to an April 2025 National Coffee Association survey, 66% of American adults drink coffee daily — more than tea, juice, soda, or bottled water. Specialty coffee has jumped 18% in popularity since 2020.
Still, how Americans drink coffee varies:
71% made it at home
16% drank only outside the home
13% did both
Most home drinkers buy from grocery or warehouse stores. But with prices rising, consumers may have to:
Drink less
Switch to cheaper brands
Cut back on café visits
Or mix and match these strategies
“People adapt,” Turer says. “There’s always a way to get that morning cup.”
Yet change isn’t easy.
“Coffee is ritualistic,” Turer adds. “People expect the same taste, smell, and experience — every single time.”
