Bad news, coffee fans: According to the latest inflation data, the average retail price of roasted coffee has jumped 14.8% since last July. And things are about to get worse.
New high tariffs imposed under the current administration are making the coffee supply chain chaotic—and are likely to drive prices even higher in the coming months.
Why Colombian coffee is no longer just Colombian
Top-tier coffee beans are grown in a handful of countries—almost all now subject to steep tariffs. Brazil, the largest global supplier with 37% of production last year, now faces a 50% tariff, which took effect on August 6.
That’s pushing bean prices sharply upward—and market players are nervous.
“There’s not an appetite to purchase large volumes of Brazilian coffee with a new 50% tariff,” says Peter Radosevich, international sales lead at specialty importer Royal Coffee in Oakland, CA.
Brazil’s value proposition has historically been its affordability. With that eroded, roasters and importers are scrambling to adjust. And it’s not just Brazil on pause—new tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% now apply to imports from nearly every major coffee-growing country.
The exception? Mexico, protected under USMCA. But even there, tariffs aren’t the only problem. Demand is surging, pushing prices upward even without new duties.
What roasters are doing
The roasting industry is facing a crossroads:
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Adapt and absorb: “They’re either going to absorb the costs—reducing profitability—or pass those prices to the consumer,” says Spencer Turer of Coffee Enterprises.
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Seek alternatives: Many roasters are urgently hunting for substitute sources that resemble Brazilian beans—and fast.
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Endure complexity: With hundreds of roasters all chasing limited supplies, competition is fierce—and managing contracts is getting harder.
Why are coffee tariffs even happening?
The traditional argument for tariffs is industry protection. But coffee isn’t grown at scale in the contiguous U.S.—only in limited regions like Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
Legislation aimed to spare coffee. Lawmakers from both parties urged an exemption for green, unroasted beans—highlighting its economic ripple effect. Yet that relief never arrived, leaving the industry stranded.
“Every $1 of imported coffee creates an estimated $43 in value throughout the supply chain… coffee shops, roasters, and distributors serve as economic engines,” the Congressional Coffee Caucus emphasized.
A peek into the coffee supply chain
From farms—whether large estates or family cooperatives—to processing centers and exporters, each step in the coffee supply chain factors into price.
Global futures markets, weather events like drought in Brazil, freight volatility, and currency shifts all influence bean prices.
US-based importers then ship in large bags (around 60 kg each) and sell to thousands of roasters—ranging from big chains to boutique operations. Tariffs, even if retroactive, apply immediately—and many of those costs are being pushed down to consumers.
“This notion that the tariffs are paid by the producing country is not true,” says David Yake, of Tony’s Coffee in Washington state. “U.S. small businesses are paying them.”
When Brazilian beans don’t make the cut
If U.S. demand for Brazilian coffee falters, other regions will fill that void. Europe already imports roughly a third of Brazil’s coffee. China—simultaneously ending Brazil exemptions—just approved 183 Brazilian exporters.
“All coffee will find a home,” as Turer succinctly puts it.
What about coffee drinkers?
Coffee lovers won’t go without—but their habits may evolve. With 66% of American adults drinking coffee daily, and rising popularity in specialty brew, any shift can significantly impact routines.
Options include:
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Paying more
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Switching to cheaper alternatives
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Brewing less often
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Drinking more coffee at home
“It’s a ritualistic product,” Turer says—“consumers expect the coffee to look, smell, and taste the same every time.”
In summary: Coffee consumers and industry players alike are in for a bumpy ride. Tariffs, climate, supply disruption, and inflation are colliding—making a steady cup of coffee more meaningful than ever.
